Forecasting and Analysis Tools for Regional Industries’ Dynamics

The article is devoted to the author’s approach and tools for regional industries’ modeling, analysis forecasting, following general idea of splitting time series into four components: trend, cycles, seasonal component, residuals. However, authors introduce new approaches, models, metrics, identification algorithms, components’ interaction structures, having included 12 industries in 82 regions Russia. models forecast accuracy were tested on 3–12 month forecasts, thus proving their high accuracy. Therefore, proposes not only systematic econometric but a methodology decision making, developed provide stable adequate characteristics complex non-linear evolutionary dynamics Russian regions.